Determinants of Green Logistics Performance in China and India: An ARDL and Time-Varying Model Application

Abstract

This study is attempting to evaluate the performance of Chinese and Indian Green Logistics (GRL) between the years 1992–2020 by estimating GRL as total GDP divided by transport-related TCO₂ emissions. Both short-run and long-run impacts of GDP, foreign direct investment (FDI), renewable energy consumption (REC), and TCO₂ emissions are examined using ARDL bounds tests and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) analysis. By deviating from traditional country or sector-specific index approaches, this research introduces an innovative comparative analysis of two leading economies and depicts the time-varying correlation pattern among top drivers. The results show that long-run economic growth significantly enhances GRL performance in China and India but significantly worsens it by TCO₂ emissions. In addition, FDI becomes a significant driver for India, while REC exhibits differential effects between the two environments. The findings from DCC on China and India reveal that GDP has a strong and positive relationship with green logistics performance.